What is CCC’s Carbon Budget 7 and why is it important?
The Climate Change Committee - commonly known as the CCC - is an independent organisation that was set up in 2008 after the Climate Act (2008), to advise the UK and devolved Governments on climate change and how to get to net-zero emissions by 2050 (2045 in Scotland).
They advise each Government of the UK on their carbon budgets, which are five-year carbon emissions limits set by the UK Government. You can read more about carbon budgets in this handy explainer document.
Climate is one important pillar for the Eating Better Alliance’s work, alongside health, animal welfare, nature recovery, farmers and social justice.
What does the CB7 say about agriculture and diets?
The CCC has made it clear: what we eat and how we produce it is central to tackling the climate crisis, stating that agriculture and dietary shifts must play a major role in emissions reductions.
Agriculture
Agriculture is currently the fourth highest-emitting sector in the UK, accounting for 11% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2022. CB7 sets out a range of measures to cut these emissions, setting a 39% reduction target by 2040 and 45% by 2050. The biggest reductions are proposed to come from reducing livestock numbers, improving farm practices, and repurposing land for nature restoration.
Low-carbon farming practices:
- A mix of soil and livestock management measures- such as methane-inhibiting feed additives, improved breeding, better animal health, and manure management- cuts emissions by 14% by 2040.
Reducing livestock numbers:
- The CCC states that a 27% drop in cattle and sheep numbers by 2040 is required to meet emissions targets.
- Livestock reductions are expected to deliver 32% of the emissions cuts required from agriculture by 2040 and release 68% of land needed for nature recovery and other land-based carbon sinks.
- This is primarily enabled by a shift towards lower-meat diets
- The budget projects a 25% reduction in methane, falling short of meeting the global methane pledge targets of 30%.
Land-use changes and efficiency improvements:
- Cutting food waste by 45% by 2040, adjusting livestock stocking densities, and improving crop yields is projected to free up land and reduce emissions while maintaining food production.
- Expanding peatland restoration, woodland creation, energy crops, and agroforestry is set to enhance carbon sequestration and biodiversity, with 10% of cropland and grassland under agroforestry by 2050 and UK woodland cover increasing to 19%.
Diets
Shifting towards healthy and sustainable diets is a key part of the CCC’s strategy for reducing agricultural emissions. CB7 strengthens its stance on dietary change, increasing the recommended reduction in meat consumption and reinforcing the need for greater availability of plant-based options.
Reducing meat consumption:
- The CCC recommends a 25% reduction in meat consumption by 2040 and 35% by 2050, compared to 2019 levels.
- Red meat has a steeper reduction target of 40% by 2050. A specific reduction target for white meat is not set.
- These dietary shifts are the primary demand side measures designed to enable livestock reductions.
Plant based options:
- The CCC assumes that reduced meat consumption will be facilitated primarily by alternative proteins, such as plant-based meat substitutes and, in later years, novel proteins.
- There is little focus on increasing whole plant-based foods such as legumes, pulses, and vegetables, despite their role in both climate and health benefits.
- Horticulture receives minimal attention in CB7, with no significant policy recommendations to increase UK fruit and vegetable production, despite its importance for food security and dietary transition.
Making it happen
The CCC sets out several key actions the UK Government must take in order to deliver the ‘Balanced Pathway’ for agriculture and land use:
- Develop a comprehensive Land Use Framework to balance climate mitigation, sustainable food production, biodiversity, and rural heritage considerations.
- Support farmers in diversifying land use by providing incentives for woodland creation, peatland restoration, bioenergy crops, and renewable energy.
- Ensure long-term funding for low-carbon farming by securing public financial support for emissions-reducing technologies and practices, with regulations to drive efficiency improvements.
- Facilitate a shift towards lower-carbon diets by increasing the availability of plant-based and alternative proteins in public procurement, supermarkets, and food service, including reformulating processed foods.
- Mitigate carbon leakage risks by implementing policies that prevent emissions being outsourced through trade in agricultural products.
What does CB7 mean for the Eating Better Roadmap?
Eating Better welcomes the continued focus and emphasis on dietary change from the CCC, but we believe that the shift needs to be even faster. We know that citizens are already adapting their diets but more support is needed to drive this at scale. Our public attitudes survey last year showed that 61% of people are willing to cut down their meat consumption.
One lever that is crucial in this transition is horticulture and the role of plant proteins. While CB7 highlights the role of alternative proteins, it falls short on prioritising UK-grown pulses, legumes, and vegetables, which offer both climate and health benefits. Expanding horticulture would reduce reliance on imports, support dietary shifts, and improve food security. Increasing domestic plant protein production should be a core part of the UK Government’s forthcoming food strategy, alongside policies that make whole plant-based foods more available and affordable for citizens.
With meat reduction, any shift in diets should come from reductions in industrial livestock production first. There remains an important role for better livestock farming, particularly when it comes to restoring nature and boosting biodiversity across the UK. There are many farmers doing amazing work to support climate and nature action, through members of Eating Better such as Pasture for Life, Soil Association and the Nature Friendly Farmers Network.
The CCC clearly states that livestock intensification is not a climate solution, acknowledging that emissions reductions require lower overall livestock numbers. Yet, CB7 does not directly mention industrial livestock production. Additionally, CB7 promotes efficiency improvements such as feed additives and breeding, which may incentivise taking animals off pasture and into industrial systems. It also excludes the emissions from imported feed, underestimating the full impact of industrial systems, especially for poultry and pork. Stronger policies are needed to curb industrial expansion.
Policy as a driver of change
The scale and speed of the change means that policies from Governments need to support citizens in adapting their diets, farmers in a just transition and a regulatory framework for business. With the forthcoming National Food Strategy for England due later this year, and food policy progressing in Scotland alongside developments in Wales and Northern Ireland, this is the perfect time to make the connection between dietary change and policy.
Find out more about how Eating Better believes we can achieve change on healthy and sustainable diets, as laid out in our Better by Half Roadmap.
Read the full 7th Carbon Budget here
